WHAT WE DO
Regional Economics & Spatial Analytics
RAnLab supports real-world decision making by combining observed localized data and contextual knowledge with advanced data analytics.
Summary of Analysis, Indicators, and Outputs
Modelling Frameworks
RAnLab has an operational geo-spatial supply chain and regional economic analytics model.
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Purpose: to assess the impacts of any present or projected future changes in the following:
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demography
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commodity prices
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industries
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labour markets
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housing demands
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services
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introduction or removal of industries/services from a region
Demographic Modelling: Change in Population
Supply Chain Analysis: Change in Economy
Both models generate data and indicators important for comprehensive analysis.
Outputs & Indicators
Comparative Advantage
Comparative advantage is based on the concept of export (external demand) and non-export (local demand only) based industries.
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Comparative advantage is External Demand when service industries have the capacity to supply both local demand and extra demand.
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Tourism example: Enterprises have the capacity to supply both local demand and the extra demand created by tourists.
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Regional Public Services Example: Hospitals have the capacity to serve larger populations than the local area.
Comparative advantage is Local Demand when an enterprise/industry has the capacity to serve local demand within the region​
Volatility
Volatility refers to the variation in an industry’s estimated employment over a period of time. High volatility suggests that the industry has experienced much more growth or decline than is typical for the region.
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Low volatility = The volatility value for an industry is below the mean of all industries
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Moderate volatility = The volatility value for an industry is within two standard deviations above the mean of all industries
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High volatility = The volatility value for an industry is beyond two standard deviations above the mean of all industries
Industry Trends
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Provincial and local industry trends refer to longer term growth factors (e.g. 2009 to 2018).
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Provincial trends refer to the overall trends of an industry (industry mix) in the province.
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Local industry trends refer to trends at the municipal level.
If the provincial and local trends indicate growth it means that some of the local growth may be linked to the spillover effect of the provincial trend as well as to some local comparative advantage.​
When the provincial trend is in decline or stable and the local trend is growing, it indicates that growth in that industry is associated with some local comparative advantage (e.g. population growth, introduction of a new industry etc.)
Indices
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Supply indices refer to those intermediate commodities or services required for operations or production (e.g. pharmaceuticals for hospitals, fuel for fishing boats, supplies for hotels and restaurants etc.).
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A dollar index measures the average value transactions of an enterprise relative to the regional economy.
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A job index measures the average amount of employment dependent on the value transactions with other enterprises relative to the regional economy.
When an index is low, the value transactions (or jobs dependent upon them) are considered to be below average, but direct jobs, as well as salaries and wages, may be the important benefit to the regional economy.
Location Quotient
Location Quotient (LQ) compares an industry’s share of local employment to it’s share of regional or provincial employment.
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If an industry’s LQ is less than or equal to 1, that industry is said to supply Local Demand.
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If an industry’s LQ is greater than 1, it suggests that industry is supplying an External Demand and the region has a comparative advantage in this sector.
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When employment is relatively high and LQ is greater than 1.0, that industry is important to the regional economy and should be monitored even if the local supply and market indices are weak.
Shift-Share
Shift-Share provides information on competition and growth factors and how much of local growth can be attributed to provincial/regional economic growth trends and how much can be attributed to unique local growth factors.
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When the Regional Effect number is greater than the Industry Mix (Provincial Industry Trend) number, growth in this industry is due to the economic conditions/factors within the municipality (the regional effect factor).
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If the Regional Effect number is less than the Industry Mix or the Provincial Effect then growth is related to the overall growth in an industry as well as overall provincial growth in the economy.
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The Provincial Effect refers to the overall growth in general and not related to any specific industry growth.
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Multipliers
Multipliers refer to how well-connected industries are within the local economy.
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The dollar multiplier refers to expenditures “spun off” through intermediate spending.
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The jobs multiplier refers to jobs in other sectors that are dependent upon these “spun off” intermediate expenditures.
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Local and total components of the supply multipliers, in estimated dollars and jobs
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Example: An industry has a total multiplier of 1.51 and a local multiplier of 1.27. This means, for every $1 of direct final demand, 51 cents will spin-off indirectly to all suppliers, of which 27 cents is estimated to be found within the local area.
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Note that imports from outside NL are included in the “total” figure for the dollar multiplier but excluded in the job’s multiplier.
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The Largest Total Industry Suppliers identifies the top three supplier multiplier industries regardless of location, along with their portion of the total multiplier and the % estimated to be available locally.
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The Largest Local Industry Suppliers identifies the top three supplier multiplier industries estimated to be sourced within the local area, along with their portion of the total multiplier and the % estimated to be available locally.
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The Local Supply Deficit identifies the top three supplier multiplier industries estimated to be missing from the local area, and the portion of multiplier (per $1 of direct final demand) that is estimated to be sourced from outside the region.
Population and Demographic Projections
There are eight different population projections produced from two models:
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Scenario Model: Estimates are based on defined migration scenarios:
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Historical Cycle: Migration alternates between periods of high and low growth. The timing and magnitude of these cycles are determined from historical migration data.
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No Migration: Migration is set at zero for the duration of the time frame – used in conjunction with the other models to assess the relationship between population dynamics and migration.
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Targeted Migration: Migration is set at the level required to meet 50%, 70% or 100% attrition targets. Retirements, new entrants, worker deaths, unemployment and participation rates are incorporated into this calculation.
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Uncertainty Model: Estimates are based on 21 years of historical migration data and the likelihood of past migration trends repeating in the future:​
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Very Low: Annual components of migration are equal to two standard errors below the mean value experienced over the past 21 years – i.e. approx. 95% of cases were between this and very high
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Low: Annual components of migration are equal to one standard error below the mean value experienced over the past 21 years – i.e. approx. 67% of cases were between this and high
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Medium: Annual components of migration are equal to the mean value experienced over the past 21 years
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High: Annual components of migration are equal to one standard error above the mean value experienced over the past 21 years – i.e. approx. 67% of cases were between this and low
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Very High: Annual components of migration are equal to two standard errors above the mean value experienced over the past 21 years – i.e. approx. 95% of cases were between this and very high
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RAnLab's goal is to support evidence-based analysis and decision-making for regional economic planning and development policies.
Data and Information Management
Data Analysis
Data Analysis involves examining data through various types of analyses (see above) to gain insight into a particular challenge or question and support evidence-based decision-making.
Data Collection
Data Collection is the process of reviewing the data landscape. We help to identify data sources, data gaps, and accessibility, gather available data, help submit custom data requests, and document all sources and gaps for future reference.
Data Organization
Data Organization involves categorizing, classifying, and standardizing data so that it is more useful for analysis and decision-making.
Data Communication
Data Communication refers to communicating socio-economic data and information in an accessible way so that policy developers and regional planners can meaningfully engage with and apply the data and information to their local contexts.